With most of the precursors tied up and in most cases, furthering the lead of the frontrunner in each category, the last curveball that could shake things up is the BAFTAs. Their proclivity for British films means British favourites like The Favourite may garner a push in some categories. Let’s take a look at the major ones, and my predictions for the upcoming BAFTAs this Sunday.
Predictions are ranked in order (too most likely)
The BAFTAs offered 5 Best Film picks that look to be potentially the strongest 5 of the Best Picture lineup going forward. Roma is feeling more and more unstoppable, but the BAFTAs could give The Favourite a boost. PGA winner Green Book could land here as well, after all, the PGA win is still a very reliable indicator of broad support. BlackKklansman, which hasn’t really landed any major wins anywhere, will be a shock if it wins, as will A Star is Born.
A Star is Born
Best British Film
This looks to be a contest between Bohemian Rhapsody and The Favourite, but I think The Favourite has it in the bag, unless it wins Best Film. Would be a welcome surprise if Stan & Ollie won, but the chance is slim against the aforementioned titans.
Stan & Ollie
You Were Never Really Here
Alfonso Cuaron should clinch this quite easily. Maybe Yorgos Lanthimos takes it, if the Brits overwhelmingly love him and his film enough, perhaps Spike Lee finally wins a precursor, or by an even slimmer chance, Bradley Cooper takes home the prize compensatorily for the Oscar snub, but this really should be Cuaron’s.
Alfonse Cuaron, Roma
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Spike Lee, BlackKklansman
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
BAFTAs matched Oscars 4 out of 5, with Brit Steve Coogan deservedly nabbing a nomination for Stan & Ollie. I think this should just add more steam to the Rami Malek train, and I doubt the Bryan Singer controversy will adversely affect the actor here. Christian Bale could definitely win here though, which would set up an Oscars deathmatch between the two, with Malek still having the edge due to SAG.
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Steve Coogan, Stan & Ollie
BAFTAs threw a curveball by including Viola Davis into the mix, but it seems that’s all the recognition she’ll be receiving for her work in Widows, as it did not translate to an Oscar nod. Here, it’ll come down to Glenn Close and Olivia Colman, of whom the latter has yet to reap any major precursor awards despite being the critics favourite. Having won the BAFTA multiple times and simply being a beloved British actress is general, I think Colman could give Close a run for her money here, though either way, the Oscar should be Close’s.
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Glenn Close, The Wife
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Viola Davis, Widows
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali was snubbed of even a nomination for his Oscar-winning performance in Moonlight at the BAFTAs two years ago, but should earn his first BAFTA this time around. This will be the last chance for presumed second place Richard E. Grant to get a boost that could make him a serious contender, and I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if he does win this. Still, it’s Ali’s to lose.
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Richard E Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Adam Driver, BlackKklansman
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Sam Rockwell, Vice
Best Supporting Actress
This category is, in essence, completely open. With Globes and Critics Choice winner (and presumed frontrunner) Regina King as well as SAG winner Emily Blunt a no-show here, any five of the nominees COULD potentially win. Just based on the performance of The Favourite nominee-wise, I’m inclined to predict Rachel Weisz for the win. An acclaimed British actress in an acclaimed British film who steals every scene she’s in? In a season this murky, I wouldn’t be surprised if Brit voters went with something familiar and recognize their homeground talent. Then again, she will split some votes with Emma Stone, which will open up the possibility of the other three actresses winning. I think Amy Adams is the presumed strongest contender here, but she hasn’t really won anything despite pundit predictions. Claire Foy and Margot Robbie could win a la Thandie Newton for Crash, with both not receiving an Oscar nod. Claire Foy in particular could surprise here, being a respected British actress with her first real breakout film role.
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Amy Adams, Vice
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Claire Foy, First Man
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
That concludes my predictions for the upcoming BAFTAs! Certainly, there is room for a lot of surprises at the BAFTAs, and for me, the actress categories are the most up in the air. I’m banking my nominations there largely on The Favourite being overwhelmingly popular with the Brits, though I could turn out to be completely wrong. If Roma wins Best Film here, it SHOULD seal the deal for it, as will a director win for Alfonso Cuaron.